The
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Peak Energy is coming!
...but whilst some states – such as Sweden, The Netherlands, New Zealand and Australia – have begun to wake up to the issue, in the UK the government is stubbornly resisting to talk about future energy policy in realistic terms. In an effort to redress the lack of public dialogue on these issues in the UK, a network of people interested in Peak Energy are organising a national programme of events to say, "Wakey! Wakey!" Peak Energy is coming and we all have to address the problems it will create today.
Peak Energy is a serious and pressing problem. The recent rise in oil and gas (and as a result, electricity) prices is only one early symptom of the changes that will take place as the modern economies of the globe find that the supply of their most import asset – energy – is constrained by production problems. The difficulty for those trying to raise awareness of this issue is that, in an economy where growth and cheap energy are pre-requisites of future development, few politicians or campaign groups want to talk about an issue which demands the contraction of our economy and the transition to a low energy future.
The peak in global energy production, if it is not here already (we need two or three years production data to demonstrate the peak, hence why a peak today could not be confirmed for two or three years), is likely to take place within five years – ten at most. The peak in natural gas production is far harder to predict, but it is likely sometime between 2015 and 2025. What complicates matters is that a widespread economic recession, initiated by high energy prices, might cut demand and push the date of the peak four or five years into the future. It may also be that the dynamic interaction of price, demand and supply is masking the attainment of a longer-term "plateau" in production (as demonstrated by the recent fluctuations in oil prices) in which case we may already be at the peak of supply. As the leading energy investor Matthew Simmons says, "peaking is something that you only see in your rear-view mirror".
In the UK "peaking" is not an issue... we've peaked! – oil production in the UK sector of the North Sea peaked in 1999 and natural gas production in 2003. In 2007 the UK will consume more oil and gas than it produces from the North Sea. In 15 years we will be importing the majority of our oil and gas. No combination of other energy sources – coal, renewable or nuclear power – can avoid this outcome.
Traditionally the debate on, "when will the oil run out", has talked about oil resources as if they were like the fuel in a car – which can be supplied at the desired rate until such time as the fuel tank is empty. This is isn't the case. The fact that oil production grows and reaches a peak half way through production was identified by the geologist M. King Hubbert in the late 1940s, and his 1956 prediction that US oil production would peak in 1970 was proven correct. Since the late 70s a debate has carried on between those who advocate the use of Hubbert's methods to predict peak in oil and gas supply, so that society might better manage its use of finite resources, and the governments, lobby groups and corporations who are heavily dependent upon energy and fossil fuels, who want to placate concerns that energy supplies are at risk in order to avoid the need to institute significant changes to society and the level of resources that it consumes.
The prime driver for the peak in energy or resource production is demand – the faster we use the resources the sooner we will reach the peak in production. The economic and geological restrictions on production mean that the best and most plentiful resources are exhausted first, and progressive we move towards the more marginal sources of supply. These two trends work together, and mean that once we reach the peak in production we cannot expand production because the quality or accessibility of resources prevents production meeting demand.
Today 88% of the energy that is traded around the globe comes from fossil fuels (36% of the world's traded energy come from oil, 24% from natural gas and 28% from coal). This is the reason why climate change is such a pressing problem – we emit large quantities of carbon but our dependence upon fossil fuels makes change difficult as the alternative sources of energy are not "as energy dense". Peak Energy does not necessarily mean that we will reduce carbon emissions as in the short term states who are determined to continue their growth-based economies may burn more polluting fossil fuels such as coal, and even peat!
The main solutions to a peak in global energy supply – reducing consumption, increasing efficiency and concentrating on systems that can achieve high levels of recycling and zero waste – will also contribute greatly to solving the climate change problem. For this reason, and in contrast to the position of some major environmental groups, the solution to addressing climate change and peak energy are entirely complementary. However, unlike the solutions to climate change (which are currently dealt with as being carried out on a virtuous or altruistic basis by concerned individuals or states) the solutions to Peak Energy will have to be implemented by everyone – simply because the lack of energy will leave no other option.
What's purpose of the tour?
The purpose of the tour is quite simple. In the five years since the issue of Peak Oil became a significant issue of debate amongst oil experts the British media (with the exception of the few news articles here or the odd BBC Newsnight special there) has singularly failed to address the issue of energy supply and energy policy in a realistic way. For this reason we're putting together a UK tour in an attempt to circumvent "the usual channels" and present the issue to as great a public audience as is possible.
The other significant factor is that in 2007 the UK will become a net importer of oil and gas (if you include coal and uranium then we have actually been a net importer of energy for some years). From now on, as the North Sea now enters its steepest period of depletion, our escalating demand for oil and gas will have a ever greater drag on our economy. We will have to import more energy to maintain the status quo of the UK's growth-driven economy and that energy will cost more and more as global supply is constrained by production problems. If the UK needs to wake up to an issue, this is the year to do it!
The tour is being organised as a collaborative effort between many local community groups and organisations around the UK who are concerned about Peak Energy. The core effort is being supplied by a few individuals, but without the widespread support for action on this issue by a variety of groups around the UK the tour would not be taking place. For his reason the scale of the tour should not be seen merely as the maturing of the Peak Energy issue in the UK, but as an issue for which there is widespread public concern that is not yet acknowledged by the political discourse within the UK.
In order to support the effort of the tour the Free Range Network and the Peak Energy writer/researcher Paul Mobbs have produced a series of short briefings on different aspects of the Peak Energy issue. There is also an extensive guide to Peak Energy related books, DVDs and web sites. All these resources are available free from the download page. Other major figures within the Peak Energy issue, such as Colin Campbell and Richard Douthwaite, have also offered to take interviews from the national media.
For those who missed the original call for local groups to organise events a part of the tour, it is likely that the organisations who came together to mount this series of events will organise further tours in the future (possibly in the late Autumn of 2007). If they wish to become involved in future events they should contact the tour co-ordinators.
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Pontypridd, cancelled!
The Peak Energy "Wakey Wakey!" Spring Tour, 2007
main web site – http://www.fraw.org.uk/tour/
Download the tour programme as a PDF file
The "wakey! Wakey!" tour is a collaborative effort between community groups around the UK with an interest in Peak Energy:
click logo to go to their web site