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The political acceptance of peak oil, and what it means for 'economic normality', has begun
In a follow-up to last months piece on the debate over energy and George Monbiot's support for nuclear power, writer and researcher Paul Mobbs mulls over the wider implications that the French Prime Minister now "gets" peak oil
download PDF version of the press release
Today, environmental consultant and author Paul Mobbs1 has released an update to last months 'ecolonomics' newsletter2 on the energy situation and nuclear power. He continues to examine George Monbiot's recent attacks on the work of the anti-nuclear movement, broadening his view to look at the areas where Monbiot's pro-nuclear stance falls down when we factor-in the implications of peak oil.
To summarise the main points:
- The announcement by the French Prime Minister that we have "reached the peak of oil production", given that France is both one of the G7 and one of the major industrialised nations, adds a new dimension to the debate over oil production. (pages 1/2)
- Using data from the US Energy Information Agency and BP, Paul graphs production to demonstrate the plateau in global production, and demonstrates why when oil production is constrained the oil price is very sensitive to the level of production above constrained level of production. If we assume that the present plateau in production were symmetrical with the peak, which he assumes was around late 2008, that puts the fall in production – and ensuing economic difficulties – as taking place in the Autumn of 2012 (pages 2/3)
- Returning once more to George Monbiot's recent attacks on the anti-nuclear movement, Paul outlines the problems of defining what is the "truth" about the relationship between radiation and health, given that there is evidence that the present dose model does not reflect the effects we see – and the failure of the nuclear establishment to accept any alternative viewpoint means that the present permitting system for power stations is a "fait accomplis". That being the case, radiation will not be the defining point for the permitting of new nuclear plants. (page 4)
- Paul challenges what remains unstated within George Monbiot's support for nuclear power. For example, does he support fuel reprocessing?, the use of "mixed oxide" (MOX) fuel containing plutonium?, and how does George stand on the ecological effects of uranium mining? Curiously, whilst George demands "peer reviewed" research from the anti-nuclear movement, the UNSCEAR report on the safety of uranium is based on un-reviewed studies from agencies with interests within the civil and military nuclear sector – despite there being a far wider body of research available on the effects of uranium mining, and its effects upon health and the environment. (pages 4/5)
- Paul picks apart George Monbiot's "over-emphasis" on the production of electricity when the data clearly shows that it's petroleum that dominates the economy, not electricity. If we look at the scale of energy use, petroleum is a far more critical component of the energy economy, and when we factor in the French Prime Minister's comments about peak oil it completely redefines any "certainties" we might have about out economic future. Consequently, given that the nuclear fuel cycle is also dependent on the use of petroleum-fuelled machinery and transport, nuclear power can't solve the problem of peak oil – as he says a number of times, "add peak oil into this equation; has the penny dropped?" (pages 6-8)
- Finally, drawing his arguments together, Paul contrasts the message of stasis and reassurance – presented by "largely self-appointed and unaccountable figures within the 'green' movement" – with the realities of what a peak in oil supply means. As indicated by the title of the piece, any such "certainty" that we can maintain the present affluent lifestyle against the effects of a peak in global oil production is "absurd". Following the "existentialist" theme within which he has composed this edition of Ecolonomics, he concludes by characterising "green consumerism" as "bourgeois", since it seeks to maintain the affluence of a small minority against the obvious trends that threaten society in general. Green consumerism is no more than an extension of the same trends of "conspicuous consumption" identified by Thorstein Veblen a century ago; the opposition of George Monbiot and others to "deep green" change is an attempt to provide a vain reassurance to affluent consumers that they can maintain their material comforts and "save the planet", even though such an outcome is unrealistic because the implications of peak oil. (pages 8-9)
To quote Paul Mobbs' views on the bias within "pro-nuclear" environmentalist's arguments –
-
Today we have politicians, journalists and
environmentalists fixated by electricity producing nuclear,
coal or renewable power plants, but the fact is that we
expend TWICE the amount of petroleum-based energy in the
transport sector as is currently used in all final
electricity consumption applications. To have such great
fixations over electricity, from wind-up radios to nuclear
plants and wind turbines, is an assumption about the
relative importance of certain forms of energy (e.g.
electricity) over others (e.g. petroleum) that's not borne
out by the statistics; clearly, the importance of
electricity to the economy above other forms of energy is a
"poorly proven assumption".
On the issue of the implications of peak oil within the nuclear debate he states –
-
Quite obviously, if you accept that you can have a peak in
mineral oil production, then you must also accept the
reality of a peak in uranium production. The geophysical
processes which create one will create a similar phenomena
with the other. More importantly, if you accept that peak
oil is a reality, then not only does that redefine the
validity of "the nuclear option", it also
significantly re-engineers the scenarios behind climate
change too.
In conclusion, on the general philosophy of environmentalism, and the innate contradictions between the reassuring messages of Monbiot and others versus the reality that the "deep green" philosophy they so despise provides a far more incisive analysis of our current predicament, he stated –
-
Today, as I outlined in the last ecolonomics, the
infiltration of market principles has nullified the
definition of human ecology within ecological limits.
Instead we see the self-appointed environmental cognoscenti
promoting "sustainable consumption" and
"green consumerism" as solutions – when in
fact these are not solutions at all, they're distractions
from the real limits which are biting down upon the human
system. Within the portrayal of environmentalism and
environmental "solutions" in the media, what I
find is not the "green nirvana" that its affluent
promoters desire; what I see is the same delusional,
short-term economic imperative that drives the rest of the
unsustainable economic process. When I try to encapsulate
the green consumerist approach in a simple description I
always revert to the rather loaded epithet –
"green with envy"; green consumerism represents
the same consumption driven imperatives that Vablen
identified a century ago.
Paul's update on peak oil and nuclear power is available at –
or for the PDF version go to –For further comments or interviews he can be most easily contacted by email – mei@fraw.org.uk – or if necessary by telephone on 01295 261864 (for ecological reasons, he has no mobile phone).
ENDS
Notes
- For information on Paul Mobbs' past and present work visit his web site – http://www.fraw.org.uk/mei/index.shtml
- The 'ecolonomics' (a contraction of the terms 'ecology' and 'economics') newsletter is an occasional publication that examines issues relating to energy, ecology and economics, and seeks to develop a more in-depth (in Paul's terms, unapologetically detailed, or as he uncompromisingly states, "My medium is the word, the argument and the reference") view of everyday issues that define human ecology. For further details see – http://www.fraw.org.uk/mei/ecolonomics/index.shtml
