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Is Global Collapse Imminent?: An Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Historical Data

Research Paper No.4, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, August 2014


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Resource information:
Resource IDturner2014
Resource titleIs Global Collapse Imminent?: An Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Historical Data
Author(s)Graham M. Turner
Publication/ sourceResearch Paper No.4, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute
Date publishedAugust 2014
Summary text/ abstractThe Limits to Growth "standard run" (or business-as-usual, BAU) scenario produced about forty years ago aligns well with historical data that has been updated in this paper. The BAU scenario results in collapse of the global economy and environment (where standards of living fall at rates faster than they have historically risen due to disruption of normal economic functions), subsequently forcing population down. Although the modelled fall in population occurs after about 2030 – with death rates rising from 2020 onward, reversing contemporary trends – the general onset of collapse first appears at about 2015 when per capita industrial output begins a sharp decline. Given this imminent timing, a further issue this paper raises is whether the current economic difficulties of the global financial crisis are potentially related to mechanisms of breakdown in the Limits to Growth BAU scenario. In particular, contemporary peak oil issues and analysis of net energy, or energy return on (energy) invested, support the Limits to Growth modelling of resource constraints underlying the collapse.
Library categories'Limits to Growth', Peak Oil, Simplicity
Added to Free Range Library26/04/2016
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