Section 20. The Likely Future
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The Likely FutureThe thermodynamics of the resource-hungry human ecosystem can lead us to only one conclusion when we look at the current energy situation of Britain... we've got a problem! The Less is a Four Letter Word presentation looks at the economic issues behind this problem, but from the simpler, energy-related issues it's clear to see that what we're doing today cannot continue for much longer. Something's going to have to change, and, given that the Laws of Thermodynamics don't negotiate, it's our demand for energy and resource that will have to change or we will have a disastrous future ahead. If we look a decade or two ahead, even given the likely impact of the current economic downturn, oil supply is going to become very problematic. We're already too close (or at) the peak in production to make a significant different to the date of the peak and eventual decline of global oil production. After this natural gas supply will become problematic. It already is a problem in North America and Western Europe, and as the alternative liquefied and piped gas supplies also run short, natural gas will become equally problematic (and in Europe even more problematic) than the peak in oil production. Coal is a problem because of climate change, and even if carbon capture and storage could be made to work, it's energy demands pretty much wipe out the efficiency gains of using more advance coal systems such as IGCC. Likewise nuclear power will provide little overall given the shortage of uranium resources, and the problems that economic and resources shortages could have on developing alternative nuclear power systems (such as fusion). Finally, renewable energy can never produce as much energy as the fossil fuels that we are consuming today. Like it or not, we're just going to have to use less energy in order to match our demand for energy and resources to what renewable energy systems can provide. For the UK, that means reducing consumption to around 30% to 40% of our current consumption within 40 to 50 years. A 60% to 70% cut might sound dramatic, but if we put this into perspective it's within living memory. Britain is using about twice as much energy as in 1950, with an extra 10 million people in the country. We're also using that energy about twice as efficiently – so the overall effect (twice as much, twice as efficiently) is about a factor of four. So a 70% cut in consumption looks much like 1950, but with better health care and the Internet. Background Information
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 The Energy Beyond
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The 'Virtual' Less is a Four Letter Word Presentation
The Annotated 2-hour EBO Presentation Slides
