Slide A, UK Energy Imports

The Joint Energy Security of Supply (JESS) Committee was formed by the government to forecast future energy supplies and identify any problems – in short, "to keep the lights on". They produced various reports but none provides a comprehensive visual representation of how our sources of energy will change in the future. The graph above takes JESS' data and 'stacks it up' to provide an interpretation of how our fuel sources will change to 2020.

On the graph above, any fuel source above the central '0' line represents indigenous UK production. Any fuel source below the line represents imported fuels. What the JESS' data shows is that, on current forecasts (which some consider over-optimistic) Britain will move from producing 80% of its energy in 2005 (the last year of real data on the above graph) to importing 80% of its energy by 2020.

Quite apart from the energy implication of importing that energy in a world where oil production will have peaked, and natural gas might be about to peak, some economists question whether this scenario is financially viable. The only other major world economy to import this much energy today is Japan. But Japan has manufacturing industries that produce goods for export and the income from these foreign markets pays for the importation of energy. In the UK. we no longer have a strong export economy, so we'll have to pay the full cost of importing this energy. Some doubt whether this is possible (even before the recent economic downturn) and so instead all that greater levels of energy importation will achieve will be a high trade imbalance and consequentially a higher level foreign debt.

Quite apart from the issue of global peak energy, the above scenarios represents a shift back to the bankruptcy economics of the 1970s as we will be unable to provide the energy and resources our domestic economy needs to function.

Slide B, UK Energy Imports

This map shows the European natural gas pipeline grid (there is also a similar map for oil pipelines). In 2003 the solid red lines were in operation, and the dashed red lines were under construction. The blue lines represent future 'priority interest' corridors for the development of new pipelines.

Within Europe the western half used to source most of their natural gas from the North Sea and the eastern half (especially the former Eastern Block states) sourced their gas from Russia. As North Sea production depletes there is a west–east shift under way as more gas is imported from Russia, Central Asia and the Caspian Sea. This is why new capacity – the blue pipelines – are required.

At the moment the problem is that Russia's use of gas as a 'economic weapon' is restricting the options for developing new capacity. The top blue line, under the Baltic Sea, is now under construction bringing gas to Britain, via Germany, within the next five years. The central three lines have experienced problems as Russia has cut supplies to these countries following disputes over supply agreements that dated from the Eastern Block era (when these states favoured Russia and in return received subsidised gas). The bottom blue line runs to the country with the largest gas resources in the world – Iran – but the recent problematic relations between western states and Iran mean that this potential supply route is also stalled due to political differences.

In order to avoid gas shortages provoked by political insecurity western European states are building liquefied natural gas (LNG) importation terminals. The problem with this option is that, as the gas resources of most developed states are now depleting, today there is greater pressure on the global LNG market. As time passes the USA, Japan and eventually China will become more reliant on LNG – making it more difficult for Europe to pay the high prices for LNG cargoes. Unlike pipelines, LNG ships can easily be redirected to the terminal of the highest bidder, and so the future price for LNG will be more volatile. Ultimately it is not as secure an alternative as a fixed pipeline network.

In short, gas is not a long-term option! Russia's gas production may peak within the decade, and the global gas resource will peak and enter a steep decline within two decades. The problem is that the pan-European gas network represents a large inertia against changing energy and economic policy. It took billions to build, it costs billions to run, and it makes billions in profit for those involved. This stops European nations understanding the fundamental solution to depleting gas – use less energy!

Background Information

JESS Committee, reports –

• 7th and Final JESS Report, BERR, 2006 – http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file35989.pdf
• 7th and Final JESS Report – Statistical Annex, BERR, 2006 – http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file36028.xls

The Future of UK Gas Supplies, POST Note 230, UK Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, October 2004 – http://www.parliament.uk/documents/upload/POSTpn230.pdf

Inogate maps:

• European Gas Grid Map – http://www.inogate.org/en/resources/map_gas
• European Oil Grid Map – http://www.inogate.org/en/resources/map_oil

Energy in the UK, Free Range Energy Beyond Oil Project Sheet E.3, Free Range Network 2008 – http://www.fraw.org.uk/download/ebo/e03/

Peak Energy, Free Range Energy Beyond Oil Project Sheet E.1, Free Range Network 2008 – http://www.fraw.org.uk/download/ebo/e01/

Transformation, Free Range Energy Beyond Oil Project Sheet S.2, Free Range Network 2008 – http://www.fraw.org.uk/download/ebo/s02/

The Annotated 2-hour EBO Presentation Slides (3.7 megabyte!!) – a PDF file containing explanatory text and web links relating to each of the slides in the 2-hour Energy Beyond Oil presentation. http://www.fraw.org.uk/download/ebo/
ebo_annotated-2008.pdf

Large format EBO presentation slides (1.7 megabyte!!) – a PDF file with a larger copy of the slide images in the presentation. http://www.fraw.org.uk/download/ebo/
ebo_presentation-2008.pdf